Accurate is probably the opposite word to describe a mock draft in any league, not just the NHL. Almost every media outlet does mock drafts and as expected every one is different. I am a geek for this stuff. Anytime I see a link to a mock NHL draft I click on it. But the annoying thing is these guys do not know what is really going to happen and I still can’t help but click to see who they are predicting. Anyone, and pretty much everyone, can predict the top three selections in this summers NHL draft (Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Jesse Puljujarvi). But after that it is anyone’s guess.
The only way a mock draft could be accurate is if you got a Delorean, outfitted with a flux capacitor and got it up to 88 miles per hour heading toward the future. Although it is very tempting, it is not going to happen.
Recently, TheHockeyWriters.com came out with their 5th annual mock draft. In the article they had links to their previous year mock drafts. This got me wondering… how well did they do last year?
They ended up only getting 7 picks in the first round correct.
They had every player in the top ten correct, just not the correct order, which is no small feat. But you can forget about the 2nd and 3rd rounds because those are a complete crap shoot at that point. It only takes one team to go “off the board” to cause a domino effect when it comes with the draft. They also cannot predict trades that causes teams to move up or down.
The image below contains their 2015 predictions (the left column), and what actually happened (the right side column).
For the most part, with a 77% success rate, the players they predicted to go in the first round did. Only 7 players that were drafted in the 1st round did not make their 1st round predictions.
TheHockeyWriters.com also wrote a scouting report for each player. So I looked through the first 2 rounds of their mock draft to see what they said about the players the Bruins picked. Here is what they said about each player the Bruins actually picked that were in the first two rounds of the mock draft.
19) Jakub Zboril (D, QMJHL’s Saint John Sea Dogs)
ANALYSIS: Zboril is considered a potential high-reward pick, which Detroit tends to prefer, and he’s been compared to everybody from Keith Yandle to Dmitry Kulikov.
24) Brandon Carlo (D, WHL’s Tri-City Americans)
ANALYSIS: ….arguably the best shutdown defender in this draft. Carlo would make a good future partner for a puck-mover. I see a lot of Barret Jackman in Carlo, who had a strong showing at the pre-draft combine, which should cement him as a first-rounder.
29) Jake DeBrusk (LW, WHL’s Swift Current Broncos)
ANALYSIS: ….a tough kid from the Western league. But unlike his father, former enforcer Louie DeBrusk, Jake has softer hands and a goal-scorer’s touch around the net. He’s not overly big, but he’s not afraid to get his nose dirty.
42) Zach Senyshyn (RW, OHL’s Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds)
ANALYSIS: ….overshadowed on a powerhouse Sault Ste. Marie team. Senyshyn should get a bigger role next season and could have a breakout campaign in the OHL. He’s already scored 26 goals in his draft year, but he could net 40-plus with increased opportunities. Senyshyn could become a Clarke MacArthur type.
59) Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (C/RW, USHL’s Omaha Lancers)
ANALYSIS: He’s got an enticing skill-set with lots of offensive potential, but he’s still far from a sure thing and thus the reason he’s not getting any first-round attention.
61) Jesse Gabrielle (LW, WHL’s Regina Pats)
ANALYSIS: Gabrielle proved to be a powerhouse at the combine, breaking the bench-press record and leading other tests as well. He was traded to Regina partway through the season (for Morgan Klimchuk), but got his start in Brandon. Gabrielle’s now learning the ropes under John Paddock in Regina, a respected coach in NHL circles.
73) Daniel Vladar (G, Czech Republic, Kladno)
ANALYSIS: ….a huge goalie that several teams could have ranked in the second round.
Jeremy Lauzon was not in thehockeywriters.com top 100, but the Bruins took him with the 52nd pick. Another thing that sticks out is the Bruins picked Jesse Gabrielle in the 4th round (105th overall).
It has been well documented that the Bruins went off the board on a few of their picks and left some very good players on the board. As Bruins fans we cannot worry about that now and just look forward to the development of the players they picked.
Looking at this year’s draft and most, but not all, mock drafts have the Bruins taking either Boston University 2016 commit defenseman Dante Fabbro, or current Boston University defenseman Charlie McAvoy with the 14th overall pick. Some mock drafts have the Bruins taking a forward with both first round picks. Personally I highly doubt that they’ll select a forward but you never know. A GM picking ahead of the Bruins could like Fabbro or McAvoy over another player so there’s always an outside chance a player like Jakob Chychrun drops to the Bruins. I would be ecstatic if Chychrun dropped to them.
Bottom line mock drafts are a crap shoot and it is impressive that thehockeywriters.com got the players in the top ten right. The order was off by a spot or two, but hats off to them. It is one of my favorite nights of the year because who knows what is going to happen. Looking back to this time last year did you really think the Bruins were going to trade Dougie Hamilton and Milan Lucic on draft day…… ?
Get ready for more fireworks.